Disney might finally have a win on its hands.
Early tracking suggests the live-action Lilo & Stitch remake is heading toward a monster opening over Memorial Day weekend, with projections landing north of $100 million domestically. That’s just the first three days.
If those numbers hold, Lilo & Stitch will surpass the entire domestic run of Snow White, a film that limped to $82 million total. Yes, one weekend of blue alien chaos might beat several months of red-carpet damage control.
According to Deadline, “tracking data estimates the film will earn $100+ million domestically just in its first three days.” That would likely secure it the No. 1 spot at the box office, even against competition from Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which is also expected to come out swinging. That film is tracking to break its own franchise record, aiming to beat Fallout‘s $61 million opening weekend.
This would mark a much-needed shift for Disney, whose recent big-budget bets (Snow White, Captain America: Brave New World) have stumbled hard. Snow White, in particular, has become a cautionary tale.
Despite winning its opening weekend with a modest $42.2 million, it couldn’t hang on and was overtaken by Jason Statham’s A Working Man in its second round. As of now, it’s earned just $182.3 million globally off a reported $270 million budget.
By contrast, Lilo & Stitch seems to be doing everything right out of the gate. The marketing has put Stitch front and center. Director Dean Fleischer Camp (Marcel the Shell with Shoes On) is also getting a lot of goodwill from fans.
As report notes, “Disney has made sure to highlight the adorably destructive Stitch in promotional materials, illustrating how it could be a refreshing change of pace for the studio’s live-action remakes.”
If it lands where projections expect, Lilo & Stitch would rank among the top debuts for a live-action Disney remake, trailing only The Jungle Book ($103.2M), Beauty and the Beast ($174.7M), and The Lion King ($191.7M). It may even outpace Jungle Book by the end of the long weekend.
If Lilo & Stitch breaks big, it proves Disney’s remake machine isn’t broken, it just needs better judgment. Not every animated classic translates to live-action gold, but some stories, like Lilo & Stitch, come with a built-in emotional core, modern relevance, and a wildly marketable alien creature.
It’s also a potential sign of life for the summer box office. With Thunderbolts* currently tracking for a softer-than-usual MCU debut ($70M range), and Captain America: Brave New World already getting outpaced by The Minecraft Movie, the industry’s looking for a bounce back. A powerhouse double-header with Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible could be the jolt theaters need.
Nostalgia may be the secret sauce here. The original Lilo & Stitch dropped in 2002, meaning today’s twenty- and thirtysomethings have grown up with it, and many now have kids of their own. That cross-generational appeal is a big advantage.
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